Monday, March 12, 2012

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The USA: release of minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting
In minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on 2-3 November, that was released оn 23 November at 07.00 p.m. GMT, it was noted that participants paid much attention to factors, that were restraining restoration of economy, especially on low levels of consumer and business confidence, uncertainty about economic recovery period and subdued home market. Nonetheless, participants estimate the next recession probability in the USA as quite low.

Ноwever, USA economy still remains vulnerable for shocks. Under a condition of such shocks absence and appropriate monetary policy economy will be moderately rising, and unemployment rate will begin to decrease somewhat next year. Acceleration of growth rates and unemployment rate diminishing is expected only in 2012 and 2013. Market did not almost pay attention to the given report focused on events around North and South Korea and Ireland. But, we suppose that it is incorrectly to ignore this data, because, as we anticipated, release of minutes has confirmed necessity of repeated quantitative softening in the USA, and also admits low interest rates on more protracted period, higher stock-market prices and a more devaluated level of the dollar on the FX.
According to this we consider that after agiotage disappearance around the Korean and Irish question EUR/USD will begin to show upward trend again to the levels of 1,3700-1,3800 on FX.
Nikolay Ivchenko, analyst of FOREX CLUB

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