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Swiss National Bank: monetary policy will be maintained stimulant for the prolonged period
Swiss National Bank today left its rate unchanged in the range at 0-0.75%. The LIBOR rate will be kept at around 0.25%. In this case the monetary policy remains stimulant during the near future.
Central Bank commented on this decision, noting that recovery of world economy is under way. Increase rates of developing countries are high, economic growth in developed countries is rather modest.
Increase in Swiss economy in 2010 Q3 was rather strong, but decreasing export, triggered by expensive franc and debt problems of euro area countries, probably will lead to moderation of increase paces in the quarters ahead.
Swiss National Bank GDP forecast for 2011 is 1.5%. Keeping in mind that first forecast of GDP growth by Swiss National Bank is always very conservative we think that economy next year will show rise at the level of 1.7-1.8%, which is comparable to IMF forecast (1.7%). Swiss National Bank has left unchanged estimation of GDP increase in 2010 at 2.5%.
New problems connected with euro area countries once again have led to appreciation of franc against euro. If the situation in these countries continues to worsen further it will make negative impact on Swiss economy. Inflation rates in Switzerland were showing its downtrend and in November 2010 constituted 0.2% on year-to-year basis. In the case of deflation risks appearance Swiss National Bank will broaden its stimulant policy.
Switzerland central bank reduced its inflation forecast for 2012 from 1.2% to 1% due to the last events in euro area countries. Nonetheless inflation forecast for 2010 was upgraded from 0.3% to 0.4% owing to the high oil prices.
The market evaluated this news as moderately negative for franc. Currency pair USD/CHF went up by 0.2% to 0.9721. We also consider that this news in the short run will support USA dollar in that pair. Our resistance levels at 0.9850-0.9900, level of support will be placed at previous minimum - 0.9559.